📪 HH #75: 2025 Home Services Business Outlook Under Trump’s New Term
- Justin Hubbard
- Apr 5
- 8 min read
TL;DR – What 2025 Means for Home Service Businesses Under Trump
The economy is growing, and consumer confidence is up, but inflation and high interest rates still make customers cautious. Expect moderate growth, not a boom.
Tax cuts are likely coming – including extensions of the 20% QBI deduction and expanded equipment expensing. Work with your accountant early to maximize savings.
Deregulation is back. Fewer federal rules mean less red tape, especially around overtime laws, contractor classifications, and environmental policies. But always check your state laws.
Labor shortages remain the #1 issue. Immigration crackdowns and E-Verify expansion may tighten the labor pool. Focus on retention, get creative with recruiting, and audit your HR compliance now.
New tariffs will raise prices on tools, vehicles, and materials from China, Mexico, and Canada. Review your supply chain, talk to vendors, and adjust pricing strategies.
Energy policy favors lower fuel costs. That’s good news for your fleet and operating expenses. Take advantage of any savings and consider offering energy-efficient upgrades to clients.
Stay profitable by knowing your numbers. Tighten job costing, raise prices strategically, cut inefficiencies, and keep cash reserves. Focus on what actually makes you money.
👉 Bottom line: 2025 brings opportunities and pressure. Be proactive, stay flexible, and use this environment to grow smarter and stronger.
Full article 👇
Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 has already reshaped the business climate. For those of us in the home services sector—hauling, landscaping, HVAC, plumbing, cleaning, and more—this shift brings with it a mix of opportunity, pressure, and unpredictability.
Right after the election, small business optimism shot up to its highest point in over three years.
Owners were hopeful about the return of pro-growth policies, tax cuts, and a reduction in regulations. The economy closed out 2024 on stronger-than-expected footing too. GDP grew around 3% in Q2 and Q3, and consumer spending remained solid.
But the story didn’t stop there. By February 2025, small business sentiment started to dip slightly. Owners began weighing potential risks: rising supply costs, labor shortages, and policy shifts that might bring unintended side effects.
In this issue, I’m breaking down what Trump’s second term could mean for your home service company. We’ll look at key economic trends, labor pressures, tax policy, regulations, trade/tariffs, and how to maintain profitability through it all.
The Economy Is Growing—But It’s Not Without Risk
Let’s start with the macro picture.
The U.S. economy is still expanding. Consumer spending hasn’t dried up. Homeowners are working, getting raises, and for many, 2025 feels like a better year to finally move forward with projects they’d put off during inflation and uncertainty.
That’s good news for home service pros. When people feel secure, they invest in their homes. Whether it’s cleaning up a property for resale, finally redoing a kitchen, upgrading their HVAC, or hiring a landscaper to get their yard right for summer—our services benefit directly from consumer confidence.
But don’t get overly comfortable.
Inflation hasn’t disappeared—it’s just slowed. And interest rates are still high, which means that financing big projects is more expensive. That leaves homeowners a little more cautious than in boom times.
Watch out for:
Pricing sensitivity from customers.
Hidden cost increases in materials or supplies.
Delayed decision-making on big jobs.
Smart moves to make:
Highlight your value. Explain how your service increases home value, safety, or energy efficiency. Don’t just sell a cleanout—sell peace of mind.
Watch your margins. As costs shift, make small tweaks to pricing instead of waiting for a big correction.
Stay agile. Have a plan for both a slower summer and a record-breaking one. Your ability to flex will separate you from competitors.
Tax Policy: More Room to Keep Your Money
If Trump can push through his plans, 2025 could be a favorable year on taxes.
First, the 20% pass-through income deduction (QBI) for small businesses is likely to be extended.
That alone can be a huge win for S-corps and LLCs. The administration is also pushing for broader expensing options. That means if you’ve been holding off on buying a new truck, commercial mower, or upgrading your CRM system—this may be your green light.
On top of that, there’s talk of making individual tax cuts permanent and even eliminating federal taxes on overtime pay. That could mean your employees take home more without you raising wages—helpful in a tight labor market.
What you should do:
Schedule a strategy session with your CPA. Don’t wait until the end of the year. You want to know now if investing in equipment or hiring gives you a write-off.
Track your deductions monthly. Don’t leave money on the table.
Plan beyond 2025. Even if cuts pass this year, they could be reversed in a future administration. Use tax breaks to build your emergency fund or invest in long-term tools that make your company more efficient.
Deregulation: Less Red Tape, More Breathing Room
One of Trump’s first executive orders was to slash federal regulations. In his words: “For every new regulation, cut 10.” Whether that actually happens or not, the signal is clear—this administration wants to reduce compliance burdens for businesses.
In practice, that means:
OSHA rule rollbacks that may ease the burden on field-based businesses.
EPA and energy efficiency rules being pulled back, which might lower operating costs.
Overtime laws that were about to expand coverage have been halted.
Contractor classification rules that threatened gig work flexibility are being reversed.
For home service businesses, this creates a little more freedom. But tread carefully.
State laws haven’t changed. If you’re in California, New York, or other heavily regulated states, you’ll still need to comply with local standards. Always operate by the strictest rule that applies.
Takeaways:
If you were budgeting for new training or certifications that are now paused, reallocate that time and money to client acquisition.
Consider using the extra margin for marketing or hiring. Reduced compliance costs give you room to grow.
Use this year to build systems that keep you compliant without needing constant micromanagement. Software, checklists, and smart SOPs go a long way.
Labor: Still the #1 Challenge
Ask any home service owner what’s hardest right now, and labor is still the answer. 2025 didn’t magically fix that.
Unemployment is low. The trades are aging. And good workers know they have options.
Meanwhile, Trump’s policies may add fuel to the fire. There’s a major push for E-Verify and immigration crackdowns, which could shrink the labor pool even more in certain areas—especially for jobs like landscaping, cleaning, and construction.
What does this mean for you?
Retention > Recruitment. Keeping your A-players is mission-critical. If they leave, good luck replacing them quickly.
Creative recruiting is key. Trade schools, vocational programs, and even retirees looking for part-time work should all be on your radar.
Compliance needs to be airtight. Don’t wait for a government audit to clean up your I-9s or figure out E-Verify. Get it done now.
Pro tip: Consider adding an employee referral program. Your best workers probably know other solid people. Pay a small bonus if they bring in someone who stays 90 days.
Tariffs & Supply Costs: Brace for Impact
Trump is also going hard on tariffs again. That means you may see prices rise on tools, materials, appliances, vehicles, and even office supplies—especially if they’re sourced from China, Mexico, or Canada.
Examples:
Cordless tools? Might be 20% more.
Work trucks? Higher costs likely if sourced outside the U.S.
HVAC parts, landscaping supplies, or metal-based components? Expect some volatility.
You can’t stop tariffs—but you can prep.
Steps to take now:
Audit your most-used products and where they come from.
Talk to suppliers. Get ahead of price hikes.
Consider a light inventory build-up of critical items if prices are set to jump.
Update your pricing structure. A “materials surcharge” may be better received than a flat rate hike, especially if you explain why.
Stay transparent with customers. Many of them are seeing the same headlines and will appreciate your honesty about rising costs.
Energy Costs: A Potential Bright Spot
There’s one area where prices might actually drop—fuel.
Trump’s aggressive push for domestic oil and gas production could stabilize or lower gasoline and diesel prices. That means your fleet costs might go down. If you’ve been charging fuel surcharges, it’s time to reassess.
Also, if energy prices come down, expect lower costs to transport goods. That can offset some of the tariff impact over time.
And don’t forget—there’s a market for energy efficiency. Even if federal incentives stall, many states still offer rebates for high-efficiency HVAC, solar, and other “green” upgrades. If you can offer those solutions, customers will pay attention.
Action items:
If you save money on fuel, use that margin wisely—invest in tools, marketing, or debt reduction.
Train your team to pitch energy-saving upgrades. Customers still want to cut utility bills.
Look into local or state rebates for equipment. You might qualify for incentives even if federal ones don’t apply.
Profitability in 2025: Stay Lean, Stay Smart
The only way to thrive in 2025 is to know your numbers.
Margins are being squeezed from all sides—labor, tariffs, materials. But you don’t have to lose money if you stay proactive.
Here’s your playbook:
Update your job costing. Know what each service actually earns you after labor, materials, fuel, and overhead.
Raise prices if needed—but do it smartly. Small, transparent increases work better than major shocks. You can also build surcharges into your quotes with expiration dates to protect against sudden cost jumps.
Focus on your best services. If one line of business is barely profitable, consider cutting it or raising the price significantly. Double down on what actually makes money.
Improve efficiency. Better routing, digital forms, automatic reminders, and tighter scheduling can all shave wasted hours. Every hour saved is a boost to your bottom line.
Keep cash reserves. Even if things look good, don’t burn through your cushion. Use this year to build financial strength. The next downturn might not be so kind.
Final Word: Stay Focused, Stay Flexible
2025 will reward business owners who stay tuned in, make decisions with clarity, and stay agile in uncertain conditions. There’s opportunity here—real, serious opportunity. But it won’t reward laziness, poor planning, or overconfidence.
This isn’t the year to coast. It’s the year to lock in your systems, dial in your pricing, and push your marketing hard while consumers are still spending.
Control what you can. Track the rest. Adjust fast.
And remember: big players move slow. Small businesses like ours have the advantage of speed.
Let’s use it.✌️
Justin Hubbard
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